Not long ago, Tesla hit the deadlines with the beta unveiling of its Full Self-Driving system for its electric vehicles. The system has a disclaimer that says, “it might do the wrong thing at the worst possible time, so always ensure your hands are on the wheel and pay extra attention to the road.”
There’s no doubt, Tesla’s system has some pretty impressive capabilities, but it’s certainly not driverless driving. We are still years away from achieving full-scale automation for our cars, and it will take a lot more work to get there.
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Self-driving is a more complicated subject because it depends on tons of variables that could lead to disastrous accidents in a split second. As we speak, you won’t find any self-driving vehicle being sold without requiring the driver to pay attention to the road, be ready to take control of the car just in case things go sideways. Below, we take a look at some of the reasons why we are still far away from full car autonomy.
Safety Not in the Bag
It’s not easy teaching a machine how it can respond appropriately when presented with random circumstances we normally stumble upon when we’re behind the wheel. A lot of research and engineering effort has been put into figuring out this issue. Nevertheless, the question remains: how do we determine when an autonomous car is secure enough?
In line with a report from a Rand Corp, to be 95% sure that self-driving cars match up the safety of human motorists, the vehicles would have to be driven 275 million failure-free miles. What is more, to show that driverless cars are even only 10% or 20% securer than human beings, the failure-free autonomous miles requirement would shoot to billions of miles. For more than a decade, American autonomous driving tech development company Waymo’s cars have driven slightly over 20 million miles.
It’s either car companies will have to spend years testing minor fleets or the general public will wind up participating in the procedure of experimenting with them. The latter can only be accepted if the appropriate infrastructure has been put in place to ensure the safety of drivers and pedestrians.
Inadequate Infrastructure
Looking forward to individual driverless cars working autonomously is a massive catastrophe waiting to happen if the roads and surrounding infrastructure aren’t in good condition. That aside, every single car would be forced to guess what other cars are doing. All the cars would depend solely on their limited view of the planet, with cameras and sensors that may well fail or be thwarted by poor weather conditions or road debris.
Infrastructure like smart camera systems and traffic lights also need to be set up to notify vehicles about cyclists, pedestrians and unsafe road conditions to successfully avoid accidents. Regrettably, most countries lack the funds for the required infrastructure.
Additionally, if cars were allowed to communicate amongst themselves, it would decrease the likelihood of any nasty surprises. Furthermore, an intranet of communication cars will also allow the cars to make collective choices in a bid to maintain speed and security. Although there are vehicles that can do such communication, no regulations have been set up to warrant vehicles from various companies will manage to communicate with one another.
It’s Not Clear Who Will Be Accountable When Accidents Occur
The other big problem with fully autonomous cars is the question of who will be legally responsible for any accidents that happen. Car companies will only be held accountable if their car is found to have a fault. But then again, what happens if a driverless car causes an accident? Is the car manufacturer held responsible since it designed the system that’s at fault?
Regulations must be put in place to address such questions. Up until then, no automakers will accept the risk of permitting drivers to use autonomous features without having the requirement for the drivers to stay ready to take control of the car at any time.
Self-Driving Car Fleets Will Lead the Way
For the foreseeable future, taxis and cargo trucks are likely to be the first driverless cars because the two businesses are still optimistic about autonomy for numerous reasons. First of all, fleet companies can trim down the general employee counts without having to eliminate the human element. A company like Waymo has already established a system where human supervisors can intervene to course correct a driverless car the moment it bumps into a situation where it can’t decide on what to do next.
Secondly, by now, taxi and trucking companies are open to more liability for their driver’s faults. The cash they save on workers ought to make up for the liability risks if they feel self-driving systems are about as safe as the human beings they substitute.
With the factors we’ve discussed above in play, you might have to, for at least another decade, see fully autonomous vehicles perhaps in specific cities or regions with appropriate infrastructure. Until then, you can expect autonomous fleet services to adopt autonomous technology faster as it eliminates the cost of labor and the possibility of human error.